First Outlook for the 2017 Hurricane Season

Posted April 10, 2017

The first 2017 forecasts for this year's Atlantic hurricane season from Colorado State University (CSU) and Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) have predicted below-average activity.

The hurricane researchers on the Tropical Meteorology Protect team are predicting 11 named storms during the upcoming season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.

The announcement was made at the National Tropical Weather Conference Thursday morning. “As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, ” the report warned.

El Niño, characterized by warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Pacific, can bring a rainy year for California, but cause other areas to experience drought.

"The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past month and the far North Atlantic is relatively cold, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation", the CSU team said.

Also predicting a below-normal season are AccuWeather meteorologists, who are looking at a potential 10 named storms, with five becoming hurricanes and three of those becoming major.

As the Spring severe weather season rolls on, we are already looking forward to the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season.

The 2017 hurricane season won't officially begin until June 1 for the Atlantic, but researchers are already taking a look at how it could play out. A summary from 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season is listed below.

The study suggests there is a 45 percent chance of a hurricane impacting Florida and a 18 percent chance of a major storm.

Such conditions "are associated with a more stable atmosphere as well as drier air, both of which suppress organized thunderstorm activity necessary for hurricane development", the posting said.

Another thing to keep in mind this year, Klotzbach said, is that there has been a lot of late-season hurricane activity in recent years.

This is the team's 34th forecast.